Does the Fair value gap retrace (1H) strategy work?
We coded the fair value gap retrace (1h) to exact mechanical rules and ran it on june 1, 2025 – june 1, 2026 (12 months) of real data with fees on. No discretion, losers published as losers. Here is the verified result.
Verified Result
Weak: the mechanical version barely cleared, or failed to clear, the fee hurdle.
| Market | TF | Trades | Win | PF | Max DD | Net |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ETH | 1h | 47 | 34.0% | 1.27 | 6.1% | +6.3% |
| Gold (PAXG) | 1h | 67 | 28.4% | 0.68 | 16.1% | -14.5% |
| BTC | 1h | 136 | 25.7% | 0.68 | 30.8% | -25.9% |
| EUR (EURUSDT) | 1h | 91 | 26.4% | 0.40 | 39.9% | -37.6% |
How the SVS 38 breaks down ▾
12 months of real 1-minute data, fees on (0.05%/side), $10k start, 1% risk. How the score works →
The exact rules tested
- Enter when price retraces 50% into a fresh fair value gap, on the 1H; structure stop; 2R target
How to read this
This is the mechanical floor — what the rules alone produced after costs, with zero discretion. A low score doesn’t mean the idea is worthless; it’s the baseline your filtering and judgement have to beat. The SVS methodology explains exactly how the score is built.
Test your own version of this
Add a trend filter, a session window, or a confluence and see if you can beat the floor. Describe it in plain English and the AI backtester runs it on real data.
Open the AI backtester →Questions
Is the Fair value gap retrace (1H) strategy profitable?
Weak: the mechanical version barely cleared, or failed to clear, the fee hurdle. Across 4 markets and 341 trades with fees on, it had a profit factor of 0.66 and an average net return of -17.9%.
What is the win rate of the Fair value gap retrace (1H) strategy?
27.6% across all tested markets. Note that win rate alone is misleading — with a fixed reward-to-risk target, a mechanically negative strategy can still win 30–45% of the time.
How was the Fair value gap retrace (1H) strategy tested?
Coded to exact mechanical rules and run on June 1, 2025 – June 1, 2026 (12 months) of real 1-minute data, fees on (0.05% per side), $10,000 start, 1% risk per trade, on Secuora's deterministic engine. No discretion.