Does the Fair value gap retrace strategy work?
We coded the fair value gap retrace to exact mechanical rules and ran it on june 1, 2025 – june 1, 2026 (12 months) of real data with fees on. No discretion, losers published as losers. Here is the verified result.
Verified Result
No edge: net negative after costs across 4 markets.
| Market | TF | Trades | Win | PF | Max DD | Net |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gold (PAXG) | 15m | 323 | 30.3% | 0.71 | 60.9% | -55.3% |
| BTC | 15m | 370 | 28.1% | 0.68 | 59.8% | -58.0% |
| ETH | 15m | 336 | 22.3% | 0.60 | 65.9% | -64.1% |
| EUR (EURUSDT) | 15m | 245 | 22.4% | 0.33 | 83.0% | -82.7% |
How the SVS 21 breaks down ▾
12 months of real 1-minute data, fees on (0.05%/side), $10k start, 1% risk. How the score works →
The exact rules tested
- Enter when price retraces 50% into a fresh fair value gap; structure stop; 2R target
How to read this
This is the mechanical floor — what the rules alone produced after costs, with zero discretion. A low score doesn’t mean the idea is worthless; it’s the baseline your filtering and judgement have to beat. The SVS methodology explains exactly how the score is built.
Test your own version of this
Add a trend filter, a session window, or a confluence and see if you can beat the floor. Describe it in plain English and the AI backtester runs it on real data.
Open the AI backtester →Questions
Is the Fair value gap retrace strategy profitable?
No edge: net negative after costs across 4 markets. Across 4 markets and 1,274 trades with fees on, it had a profit factor of 0.60 and an average net return of -65.0%.
What is the win rate of the Fair value gap retrace strategy?
26.1% across all tested markets. Note that win rate alone is misleading — with a fixed reward-to-risk target, a mechanically negative strategy can still win 30–45% of the time.
How was the Fair value gap retrace strategy tested?
Coded to exact mechanical rules and run on June 1, 2025 – June 1, 2026 (12 months) of real 1-minute data, fees on (0.05% per side), $10,000 start, 1% risk per trade, on Secuora's deterministic engine. No discretion.