Does the 200 EMA bounce (trend + pullback) strategy work?
We coded the 200 ema bounce (trend + pullback) to exact mechanical rules and ran it on june 1, 2025 – june 1, 2026 (12 months) of real data with fees on. No discretion, losers published as losers. Here is the verified result.
Verified Result
Weak: the mechanical version barely cleared, or failed to clear, the fee hurdle.
| Market | TF | Trades | Win | PF | Max DD | Net |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ETH | 1h | 188 | 33.5% | 0.87 | 30.8% | -14.7% |
| Gold (PAXG) | 1h | 126 | 35.7% | 0.77 | 21.6% | -20.3% |
| BTC | 1h | 175 | 29.7% | 0.69 | 37.7% | -34.6% |
| EUR (EURUSDT) | 1h | 175 | 38.3% | 0.50 | 63.8% | -61.6% |
How the SVS 31 breaks down ▾
12 months of real 1-minute data, fees on (0.05%/side), $10k start, 1% risk. How the score works →
The exact rules tested
- In the direction of the 200 EMA, enter when price pulls back and touches the 200 EMA; 1.5x ATR stop; 2R target
How to read this
This is the mechanical floor — what the rules alone produced after costs, with zero discretion. A low score doesn’t mean the idea is worthless; it’s the baseline your filtering and judgement have to beat. The SVS methodology explains exactly how the score is built.
Test your own version of this
Add a trend filter, a session window, or a confluence and see if you can beat the floor. Describe it in plain English and the AI backtester runs it on real data.
Open the AI backtester →Questions
Is the 200 EMA bounce (trend + pullback) strategy profitable?
Weak: the mechanical version barely cleared, or failed to clear, the fee hurdle. Across 4 markets and 664 trades with fees on, it had a profit factor of 0.70 and an average net return of -32.8%.
What is the win rate of the 200 EMA bounce (trend + pullback) strategy?
34.2% across all tested markets. Note that win rate alone is misleading — with a fixed reward-to-risk target, a mechanically negative strategy can still win 30–45% of the time.
How was the 200 EMA bounce (trend + pullback) strategy tested?
Coded to exact mechanical rules and run on June 1, 2025 – June 1, 2026 (12 months) of real 1-minute data, fees on (0.05% per side), $10,000 start, 1% risk per trade, on Secuora's deterministic engine. No discretion.