Does the EMA 12/26 cross strategy work?
We coded the ema 12/26 cross to exact mechanical rules and ran it on june 1, 2025 – june 1, 2026 (12 months) of real data with fees on. No discretion, losers published as losers. Here is the verified result.
Verified Result
Weak: the mechanical version barely cleared, or failed to clear, the fee hurdle.
| Market | TF | Trades | Win | PF | Max DD | Net |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ETH | 1h | 252 | 33.7% | 0.90 | 18.4% | -16.6% |
| BTC | 1h | 248 | 29.4% | 0.69 | 48.3% | -46.8% |
| Gold (PAXG) | 1h | 201 | 27.4% | 0.52 | 64.5% | -61.1% |
| EUR (EURUSDT) | 1h | 215 | 33.0% | 0.40 | 73.7% | -73.4% |
How the SVS 26 breaks down ▾
12 months of real 1-minute data, fees on (0.05%/side), $10k start, 1% risk. How the score works →
The exact rules tested
- Long when EMA(12) crosses above EMA(26), short on the inverse; 1.5x ATR stop; 2R target
How to read this
This is the mechanical floor — what the rules alone produced after costs, with zero discretion. A low score doesn’t mean the idea is worthless; it’s the baseline your filtering and judgement have to beat. The SVS methodology explains exactly how the score is built.
Test your own version of this
Add a trend filter, a session window, or a confluence and see if you can beat the floor. Describe it in plain English and the AI backtester runs it on real data.
Open the AI backtester →Questions
Is the EMA 12/26 cross strategy profitable?
Weak: the mechanical version barely cleared, or failed to clear, the fee hurdle. Across 4 markets and 916 trades with fees on, it had a profit factor of 0.65 and an average net return of -49.5%.
What is the win rate of the EMA 12/26 cross strategy?
31.0% across all tested markets. Note that win rate alone is misleading — with a fixed reward-to-risk target, a mechanically negative strategy can still win 30–45% of the time.
How was the EMA 12/26 cross strategy tested?
Coded to exact mechanical rules and run on June 1, 2025 – June 1, 2026 (12 months) of real 1-minute data, fees on (0.05% per side), $10,000 start, 1% risk per trade, on Secuora's deterministic engine. No discretion.