The "Silver Bullet" is one of the most-searched ICT (Inner Circle Trader) setups: during a fixed one-hour window — 10:00 to 11:00 New York time — wait for a liquidity sweep, a market-structure shift in the opposite direction, then enter on the retrace into the fair value gap that move created.
Almost everything written about it is anecdote. We ran it as a machine would: exact mechanical definitions, 12 months of real 1-minute Binance data on BTC and ETH, realistic costs, 1% risk per trade — using the same deterministic engine that powers Secuora’s AI backtester. Here is what actually happened, including a finding most articles won’t give you.
Verified Result
No edge: net negative after costs across 2 markets.
| Market | TF | Trades | Win | PF | Max DD | Net |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC | 5m | 46 | 17.4% | 0.14 | 33.5% | -33.5% |
| ETH | 5m | 47 | 8.5% | 0.08 | 42.8% | -41.8% |
How the SVS 20 breaks down ▾
12 months of real 1-minute data, fees on (0.05%/side), $10k start, 1% risk. How the score works →
The exact rules we tested
- Trade only between 10:00 and 11:00 New York time (DST-correct).
- Condition 1 — liquidity sweep: a wick takes out a prior swing high/low (fractal lookback 3) and the candle closes back inside.
- Condition 2 — market-structure shift: a close beyond the most recent confirmed opposing swing.
- Condition 3 — FVG retrace: price returns to the 50% level (consequent encroachment) of the freshest unfilled 3-candle fair value gap, max 30 bars old.
- Entry at the close of the qualifying 5-minute candle; stop beyond the last opposing swing; target 2R; any open trade closes when the window ends.
- Risk: 1% of equity per trade; costs: 0.05% commission per side; position size capped at 10× notional leverage.
Results
Binance spot 1-minute klines (data-api.binance.vision), aggregated per strategy timeframe · starting balance $10,000 · risk 1%/trade · Commission 0.05% per side; no spread/slippage modeled (BTC/ETH spot spreads are sub-basis-point); position size capped at 10× notional leverage. Generated 2026-06-12 by the Secuora ai-strategy deterministic runner (same engine as the in-app AI backtester).
| Month | Trades | Win rate | Net P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-06 | 2 | 0% | −$262 |
| 2025-07 | 5 | 0% | −$535 |
| 2025-08 | 11 | 9% | −$939 |
| 2025-09 | 2 | 0% | −$166 |
| 2025-10 | 4 | 0% | −$459 |
| 2025-11 | 3 | 0% | −$271 |
| 2026-01 | 3 | 33% | −$148 |
| 2026-03 | 3 | 67% | $96 |
| 2026-04 | 7 | 14% | −$499 |
| 2026-05 | 6 | 50% | −$169 |
| Month | Trades | Win rate | Net P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-06 | 1 | 100% | $167 |
| 2025-07 | 2 | 0% | −$257 |
| 2025-08 | 3 | 0% | −$399 |
| 2025-09 | 3 | 0% | −$450 |
| 2025-10 | 7 | 14% | −$509 |
| 2025-11 | 5 | 0% | −$552 |
| 2025-12 | 2 | 0% | −$224 |
| 2026-01 | 11 | 9% | −$988 |
| 2026-02 | 1 | 0% | −$118 |
| 2026-03 | 4 | 25% | −$220 |
| 2026-04 | 7 | 0% | −$549 |
| 2026-05 | 1 | 0% | −$84 |
Assumptions (how loose terms were pinned down)
- FVG = 3-candle imbalance; entry at the 50% (consequent encroachment) of the freshest unfilled gap
- MSS = close beyond the most recent confirmed swing (fractal lookback 3)
- Sweep = wick through the prior swing with a close back inside
- Risk 1% of equity per trade
- RELAXED reading: liquidity sweep and FVG retrace must coincide on the same 5m candle; the strict recipe additionally requires a same-candle market-structure shift
- Published alongside the strict reading so the sample-size difference is visible
The honest finding: the strict confluence almost never lines up
Read mechanically — all three conditions true on the same 5-minute candle — the Silver Bullet barely ever fires. Across 12 months and two instruments the strict reading produced almost no qualifying candles inside the window. That is not a bug; it is a property of the definition. Discretionary traders sequence these conditions over several candles and exercise judgment about which swing "counts" — which means two traders can call completely different trades "the Silver Bullet".
So we also tested a relaxed reading (sweep + FVG retrace coinciding, dropping the same-candle structure-shift requirement) to get a tradeable sample. Both result sets are below, labeled. When someone quotes you a Silver Bullet win rate, the first question to ask is: which mechanical reading did they test?
How to read these numbers
These are mechanical results on crypto (BTC/ETH trade 24/7, so the NY window captures US-equities-open volatility rather than an exchange open). They are not a verdict on how any individual trades the setup discretionarily — they are a floor: what the rules alone, without judgment, would have produced after costs.
Methodology, in one paragraph
Data: Binance spot 1-minute klines (data-api.binance.vision), aggregated per strategy timeframe, June 1, 2025 – June 1, 2026 (12 months). Execution: Secuora’s deterministic strategy runner (the same engine behind the in-app AI backtester) — single position at a time, entries at the close of the signal candle, commission 0.05% per side; no spread/slippage modeled (btc/eth spot spreads are sub-basis-point); position size capped at 10× notional leverage, starting balance $10,000, 1% risk per trade. Swings are confirmed fractals with no look-ahead. These are mechanical results: no discretion, every signal taken. Past performance does not predict future results; this is research, not financial advice.
Frequently asked questions
What is the ICT Silver Bullet strategy?
A time-window setup popularized by Inner Circle Trader: during 10:00–11:00 New York time (there are also 3–4am and 2–3pm variants), wait for a liquidity sweep, then a market-structure shift, then enter on the retrace into the fair value gap left by that move, targeting roughly 2R.
What win rate does the Silver Bullet have?
It depends entirely on the mechanical reading. In our 12-month BTC/ETH test, the strict same-candle reading produced too few trades to quote a meaningful win rate, and the relaxed sweep+FVG reading produced the win rate shown in the results table on this page. Treat any quoted Silver Bullet win rate without a published rule set as marketing.
Does the Silver Bullet work on crypto?
The 10–11am New York window still corresponds to a real volatility regime on BTC and ETH (the US equities open). Our mechanical test after costs is published above — and you can replay the same window candle-by-candle on Secuora to build your own sample.
How can I backtest the Silver Bullet myself?
Two ways on Secuora: describe it in plain English to the AI backtester (it compiles your words into the same deterministic engine used for this research), or replay the 10–11am window bar by bar in the replay terminal and trade it manually with simulated orders.