Does the Volume-spike breakout strategy work?
We coded the volume-spike breakout to exact mechanical rules and ran it on june 1, 2025 – june 1, 2026 (12 months) of real data with fees on. No discretion, losers published as losers. Here is the verified result.
Verified Result
No edge: net negative after costs across 4 markets.
| Market | TF | Trades | Win | PF | Max DD | Net |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ETH | 15m | 1,150 | 35.7% | 0.85 | 76.1% | -75.6% |
| BTC | 15m | 1,113 | 33.2% | 0.63 | 97.0% | -97.0% |
| EUR (EURUSDT) | 15m | 505 | 25.3% | 0.23 | 99.3% | -99.3% |
| Gold (PAXG) | 15m | 1,064 | 31.0% | 0.33 | 99.8% | -99.8% |
How the SVS 22 breaks down ▾
12 months of real 1-minute data, fees on (0.05%/side), $10k start, 1% risk. How the score works →
The exact rules tested
- Break of the 20-bar high/low confirmed by volume >= 2x the 20-bar average; 1.5x ATR stop; 2R target
How to read this
This is the mechanical floor — what the rules alone produced after costs, with zero discretion. A low score doesn’t mean the idea is worthless; it’s the baseline your filtering and judgement have to beat. The SVS methodology explains exactly how the score is built.
Test your own version of this
Add a trend filter, a session window, or a confluence and see if you can beat the floor. Describe it in plain English and the AI backtester runs it on real data.
Open the AI backtester →Questions
Is the Volume-spike breakout strategy profitable?
No edge: net negative after costs across 4 markets. Across 4 markets and 3,832 trades with fees on, it had a profit factor of 0.65 and an average net return of -92.9%.
What is the win rate of the Volume-spike breakout strategy?
32.3% across all tested markets. Note that win rate alone is misleading — with a fixed reward-to-risk target, a mechanically negative strategy can still win 30–45% of the time.
How was the Volume-spike breakout strategy tested?
Coded to exact mechanical rules and run on June 1, 2025 – June 1, 2026 (12 months) of real 1-minute data, fees on (0.05% per side), $10,000 start, 1% risk per trade, on Secuora's deterministic engine. No discretion.